The risks that destroy China entries are usually created before they begin
Visible risks
Design risks
The risks that most commonly destroy China market entries are embedded in the business model before the first in-market move is made - a business model that cannot easily adapt when the market responds differently than projected.
What China does to risk
China does not create risk. It exposes design weaknesses that already exist in the entry model - faster, and more expensively, than comparable markets.
What are the risks of entering China
Visible risks
Regulatory
Regulatory
Geopolitical
IP protection
Currency
Partner dependency
Lack of operational visibility
Overcommitted initial structure
Sequencing-created exposure
Market-position lock-in
Partner leverage
Why visible risks mislead
Visible risks
The visible risks are discussed, documented, and broadly understood. Companies entering with serious intent typically carry reasonable mitigation strategies for them before the first in-market conversation.
This is not the problem.
Design risks
The problem is that focus on the visible risks creates a false sense of completeness: The risk assessment is done, the business plan proceeds. The design risks - which are considerably more consequential for entry outcomes - are often not being assessed thoroughly.
Most design risk is reducible before entry begins
Cost by design - not of doing business
The design risks above are not the cost of doing business in China. They are the cost of building a poorly designed market entry.
Dependency risk is manageable
Partner dependency is to a large extent manageable when your market identity, data access, and commercial terms are set before the partner is chosen.
Risk drops with the right order of decisions
Companies can avoid becoming overcommitted by moving through market entry in stages based on proven results rather than forecasts. Risks can be reduced by planning key decisions in the right order instead of allowing them to develop reactively.
This is the case for validation
The difference between a resilient China entry and a design-exposed one is often created in the period before in-market operations begin.
This is what market validation accomplishes. It surfaces the market entry design exposures the company will face and creates the evidence base to design around them before the commitments are made.


